The Dual Impact of Climate Change and Economic Manipulation on Food Costs and Security
It is very clear that the impact of climate change on rising food costs and food insecurity is indisputable. But, adding the dimension of geopolitical and economic manipulation reveals even deeper complexity that requires unpacking. Examining both dimensions, supported by relevant evidence and expert perspectives could help understand the looming crisis at hand.
1. Direct Impacts of Climate Change
Flooding, driven by climate change, devastates crops, reduces arable land, and disrupts farming cycles. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme weather events such as floods have increased in frequency and intensity, leading to reduced agricultural output and higher food prices due to supply shortages (IPCC, 2021). Smallholder farmers, who supply approximately 80% of food in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions (FAO, 2023). Beyond crops, flooding damages infrastructure such as roads, markets, and storage facilities. The World Bank notes that infrastructure damages increase transportation costs, inflating the price of both food and non-food items (World Bank Development Report, 2022). Businesses incur higher operational costs for recovery and risk management, with these costs ultimately passed on to consumers. Climate-induced events—floods, droughts, and cyclones—directly impact food availability, accessibility, and affordability. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that climate change could push an additional 100 million people into hunger by 2030 if mitigation measures are not taken (WFP, 2022).
2. Geopolitical and Economic Manipulation
While climate change has real and observable effects, the global political economy significantly influences food insecurity. This interplay includes:
Western Powers and Economic Policies
It’s open knowledge that multinational corporations, predominantly based in the West, dominate global agricultural supply chains and significantly influence food pricing. A study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) highlights how food speculation in global markets can artificially inflate prices (IFPRI, 2022). Export restrictions and subsidies in Western countries further distort trade, limiting the competitiveness of developing nations.
It is not lost to many of us that development and food aid are sometimes wielded as tools for political and economic influence. According to Oxfam International, aid dependency undermines local agricultural resilience by discouraging investment in local food systems (Oxfam Report on Aid Effectiveness, 2023).
Indeed, Climate funds pledged by wealthy nations often come with conditions that prioritize donor interests over local needs. For instance, a 2022 analysis by Climate Policy Initiative found that only 20% of pledged climate funds directly benefit smallholder farmers and local agricultural initiatives in developing countries (Climate Policy Initiative Report, 2022).
3. Climate Change vs. Geopolitical Manipulation
These two dynamics coexist and often amplify each other:
- Human-induced climate change is driving more frequent and severe weather events. Reports from NASA and NOAA affirm that global temperature rises and changes in precipitation patterns disrupt food systems worldwide (NASA Climate Change Science Update, 2023).
- The global response to these crises is shaped by power imbalances, creating scenarios where some nations gain more control while others face heightened vulnerabilities. For example, floods in Africa may be exacerbated by external trade policies, monopolized global seed and fertilizer markets, and limited access to affordable technology (UNCTAD Trade and Development Report, 2023).
4. Africa’s Agency in Addressing These Challenges
To mitigate the dual challenges of climate change and economic manipulation, Africa can take several steps including; Invest in Climate-Resilient Agriculture Promoting drought- and flood-resistant crops, sustainable farming practices, and irrigation systems can improve resilience. For instance, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has successfully introduced climate-resilient maize varieties in East Africa (AGRA Progress Report, 2022). Reducing dependency on imports by investing in local food production, storage, and distribution is critical. The African Development Bank (AfDB) has been funding initiatives to build food storage and distribution networks in rural areas (AfDB Annual Report, 2023). Advocating for reforms in global trade agreements to ensure fair access and pricing for developing nations is essential. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has identified trade distortions as a key obstacle for food security in Africa (WTO Trade and Food Security Report, 2022). Working with non-aligned partners can prioritize projects that directly benefit local populations. For example, partnerships with emerging economies such as India and Brazil have resulted in successful agricultural technology transfers (South-South Cooperation Report, 2023).
Notably, developing nations should take this situation a serious concern and must address these dual challenges by investing in climate-resilient agriculture, strengthening local food systems, advocating for fair trade policies, and strategically leveraging climate funds. The rising costs of food and essentials due to floods and other climate impacts are scientifically validated and observable phenomena. In as much as, the exacerbating role of global political and economic structures cannot be ignored, the available alternative could be tackling both dimensions by investing in climate-resilient agriculture, strengthening local food systems can food security and resilience be achieved.
Nuha A. Mwesigwa
Field Service Professor Strategic Engagement, University-Industry linkage
Vice President East Africa, Canada-Africa Trade and investment Forum Advisory Board
Regional Representative Africa Leadership Forum Montreal Canada